7-Day & 30-Day Market Intelligence for Independent Dealers
As of April 3, 2026 | Sources: Canadian Black Book, Clutch, DesRosiers Automotive, OPENLANE, AutoTrader, TD Economics
Executive Summary
Canada’s used vehicle market is entering April with the clearest sign yet that wholesale prices are approaching a floor. The weekly decline rate has narrowed for five consecutive weeks — from 0.60% in late February to just 0.11% for the week ending March 28 — and the spring selling season is now underway. The correction isn’t over, but the pace has slowed to a crawl.
Retail prices remain anchored near $34,000 nationally, still driven primarily by composition effects rather than individual vehicle appreciation. The story underneath the averages hasn’t changed: SUVs now command 62% of all used sales, trucks retain genuine like-for-like pricing power, and sedans continue to lose ground. But new developments are layering on complexity. BYD, Chery, and Geely are actively working to certify vehicles for the Canadian market. Ontario’s premier is pressuring Quebec and B.C. to drop their provincial EV mandates. The federal auto strategy consultation closes April 13. And a federal election is reshaping every policy assumption dealers had for the rest of 2026.
For dealers, the next 90 days are a compressed decision window. Spring demand is arriving into a market with tight late-model supply, political uncertainty, and a CUSMA review that starts in July. Getting appraisals right at the trim level — not the segment level — is the difference between capturing margin and watching it evaporate.
Key Takeaway — 7 Days
For the week ending March 28, wholesale prices declined just 0.11% — the fifth consecutive week of decelerating losses and the smallest drop since mid-January. The market is functionally flat. Late-model vehicles continue to face the most pressure as higher original MSRPs limit buyer reach, while older, more affordable units are seeing relatively stronger demand — a clear affordability-driven rotation.
Key Takeaway — 30 Days
March wholesale data told a story of progressive stabilization. Weekly declines moved from 0.30% (week ending March 7) to 0.20% (March 14) to 0.11% (March 28). Car segments led the softening, while truck/SUV segments were nearly flat by month-end. Retail listing prices held at approximately $37,100 across ~205,000 dealer listings nationwide. New-vehicle sales in February came in flat year-over-year at roughly 122,000 units.
The Wholesale Deceleration: Five Weeks of Narrowing Losses
This is the most important chart in the Canadian used vehicle market right now — even if it’s not one you’ll find published elsewhere. Here’s the weekly wholesale price change trajectory through March:
| Week Ending | Overall Wholesale Change | Trend Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21 | −0.60% | Accelerating decline |
| Feb 28 | −0.52% | First deceleration |
| March 7 | −0.30% | Noticeable shift; 8 of 22 segments positive |
| March 14 | −0.20% | Continued narrowing; broad-based softening |
| March 28 | −0.11% | Functionally flat; approaching floor |
Five straight weeks of decelerating losses is not a coincidence — it’s a pattern. The market is approaching an equilibrium point where seasonal demand is meeting the correction. Whether April tips wholesale into positive territory depends on spring traffic volume and whether sellers hold firm or capitulate on floor prices.
Inside the numbers, there’s a clear rotation happening. Late-model vehicles (0–2 years old) are facing the steepest pressure because their original MSRPs were inflated by tariff-era pricing, limiting buyer reach. Meanwhile, older and more affordable units are seeing relatively stronger demand — a classic affordability-driven shift that independent dealers, who tend to stock deeper in the 5–10 year range, are positioned to benefit from.
Segment Snapshot
| Segment | Current Direction | Key Dynamics |
|---|---|---|
| Cars (all types) | ↓ Still leading the correction | Market share down to 22%; sedans losing ground to compact crossovers |
| Trucks | → Flat to slightly positive | Only body style with like-for-like pricing power; Sierra/Silverado up $2,300–$2,500 YoY |
| SUVs / Crossovers | ↓ Mild softening | 62% of all used sales; compact and subcompact crossover demand surging |
| Used EVs | ↓ Accelerating decline | Now cheaper than used hybrids ($40,251 vs $42,393); 2022–23 lease returns hitting lots |
| Clean / Retail-Ready | → Firm | Upstream channels absorbing quality units before auction; condition premium widening |
The Affordability Squeeze: Canada’s Used Market Is Splitting in Two
One of the most underreported stories in the Canadian used market is the disappearance of budget inventory. The sub-$20,000 segment is thinning rapidly across the country. The share of vehicles priced under $20,000 dropped to 30% in 2025 — down from 53% in 2019. Quebec is feeling it the hardest: the share of vehicles under $15,000 fell 5.6 percentage points year-over-year, more than double the national rate.
This isn’t just a consumer problem. It’s a dealer problem. Independents who historically built their business on the $12,000–$22,000 range are watching their addressable inventory shrink. The vehicles that used to fill that price band — 5-to-8-year-old Civics, Corollas, Elantras — are either being held longer by owners (retention is up nearly a full year since 2019) or are aging out of the quality threshold buyers expect.
Meanwhile, the top end of the used market keeps getting richer. Average selling prices are drifting upward because the mix is tilting toward larger, newer, and more premium units — not because those units are getting more expensive individually. This is the composition story we flagged in our March report, and it’s intensifying. For dealers, it means the “average” price is increasingly misleading. A $34,000 national average tells you nothing about whether a specific 2021 RAV4 LE in your postal code is priced to move or priced to sit.
Policy Update: Three Fronts, One Decision Window
1. Chinese EV Certification Accelerating
Canadian Black Book’s March 24 report confirmed that BYD, Chery, and Geely are actively working to certify vehicles for sale in Canada. BYD has already registered vehicles with Transport Canada’s Appendix G Pre-clearance Program — the only Chinese EV brand with that clearance, thanks to prior applications for taxis and buses. The first 24,500-unit quota tranche is open through August 31. Tesla, Volvo, and Polestar are expected to absorb most of the early permits, but the regulatory pipeline is moving faster than many expected. Lotus has already confirmed Canadian deliveries starting March 2026 after slashing Eletre pricing by approximately 50%.
2. The EV Mandate Battle: Ontario vs. Quebec and B.C.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford sent letters on March 17 to both Quebec Premier Legault and B.C. Premier Eby, urging them to repeal their provincial EV sales mandates. Ford’s argument: the federal government already repealed its own mandate in February, and maintaining provincial mandates creates a fragmented market that makes Canada’s auto sector less competitive against the U.S. Quebec has partially softened its approach, but Ford characterized those moves as insufficient. B.C. received the more direct letter, with Ford explicitly asking for a full repeal.
For dealers, the mandate debate matters because it directly shapes what inventory gets pushed into the used market. Provinces with aggressive EV mandates generate more off-lease EV supply, which accelerates used EV depreciation and creates pricing pressure for dealers holding electric inventory.
3. Federal Auto Strategy Consultation Closes April 13
The government’s import credit consultation — the centerpiece of the February 5 auto strategy — closes on April 13. The proposed system would allow automakers producing in Canada to earn tradeable credits that offset tariffs on imported vehicles. This is the mechanism that could determine whether OEM production stays in Ontario or shifts further to the U.S. in response to Trump’s tariff regime. The Conservative alternative — a “dollar-for-dollar” tariff rule and GST exemption on Canadian-made vehicles — offers a fundamentally different vision. The federal election outcome will determine which path Canada takes, and with it, the future model mix, MSRP structure, and downstream used vehicle supply for years to come.
Supply & Sourcing: The Structural Picture
Nothing has changed about the underlying supply constraint — and that’s the point. The pandemic production gap (an estimated 1.5 million fewer vehicles produced between 2020 and 2023) continues to suppress lease return volumes. Canadian Black Book forecasts used vehicle supply in the 0-to-8-year range to decline a further 2.6% this year, with the trough not expected until 2027.
The DesRosiers/UCDA survey data from February continues to define the sourcing landscape:
| Metric | Franchised | Independent |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 avg. used sales per store | 354 units | 173 units |
| 2026 projected avg. sales | 405 units (+14%) | 201 units (+16%) |
| Primary sourcing channel | Consumer direct (65.4%) | Auction (50.6%) |
| Sourcing worsened (past 6 months) | 52.0% | 48.2% |
The key implication for independents: when over half of your sourcing comes from auction and auction supply is tightening, your cost-to-market math gets harder. The dealers who will protect margin this spring are the ones who can accurately price at the trim level before they bid — not the ones relying on segment averages and gut feel.
Macro Factors & Trade Policy
| Factor | Market Impact | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. 25% auto tariffs (Section 232) | Added ~$830 per used unit; pushing buyers into used market | CUSMA review July 2026 |
| Canadian counter-tariffs | Slowed used exports to U.S.; more domestic supply | Maintained; import credit consultation closes Apr 13 |
| Canada-China EV quota (49,000 units) | BYD, Chery, Geely certifying; downward pressure on used EV values | Mass Chinese brand volume is a 2027 story |
| Federal $5,000 EV rebate (excl. China) | Creates two-tier pricing; $5K cushion for FTA-origin EVs | Active since Feb 16 |
| Provincial EV mandate fragmentation | Ontario pushing Quebec & B.C. to repeal; shapes future used EV supply | Politically charged; election-dependent |
| Pandemic production gap (2020–23) | ~1.5M fewer lease returns; tight off-lease supply | Trough 2027; rebound 2028 |
| TD Economics 2026 sales forecast | New vehicle sales projected −4.3% to ~1.9M units | Affordability + trade uncertainty |
| Bank of Canada rate | Holding at 2.25%; no further cuts expected | Monthly payments ~$1,000; constraining new sales |
| Insurance cost pressure | Premiums up 5.5% YoY nationally; Alberta up 17% | High-theft surcharges up to $1,500 on targeted models |
Near-Term Outlook
| Indicator | Direction | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Wholesale prices (7-day) | → Approaching floor | 0.11% decline — fifth straight week of deceleration |
| Retail average price | → Stable near $34,000 | Composition-driven; like-for-like still falling in most segments |
| Spring demand | ↑ Arriving now | Likely compressed into April–May vs. 2025’s tariff-rush spring |
| Inventory availability | → Tight but stable | 0-to-8-year supply declining 2.6%; sub-$20K segment thinning |
| Trucks (like-for-like) | ↑ Appreciating | Supply-constrained; only body style with genuine pricing power |
| Used EVs | ↓ Declining sharply | 2022–23 lease returns flooding market; ~35 new EV models launching in 2026 |
| Older / affordable units | ↑ Relative strength | Affordability rotation benefiting 5–10 year old vehicles |
| Policy uncertainty | ⚠ Elevated | Election, CUSMA review, import credit consultation, provincial mandates |
Analyst Note
The five-week deceleration in wholesale losses is the strongest stabilization signal we’ve seen since early 2025. If April brings the typical spring demand bump — even a muted one — wholesale could turn positive for the first time since January. But “typical” is doing heavy lifting in that sentence. Last spring’s tariff-rush pulled demand forward aggressively, and that surge won’t repeat. The smart bet is a compressed, moderate spring bounce concentrated in April and May, followed by a flatter summer than usual as CUSMA uncertainty weighs on sentiment. Dealers who are buying at auction right now should be pricing to the trim, not the segment — the spread between a well-equipped and base trim on the same model can be $3,000–$5,000 at wholesale, and that gap widens when the market is uncertain.
What Smart Dealers Are Watching This Month
1. Will wholesale turn positive in April? Five weeks of deceleration suggest we’re close to a floor. The next two CBB weekly reports will tell us whether spring traffic is sufficient to flip the sign. If it does, it won’t be a surge — it’ll be a crawl into positive territory.
2. Import credit consultation deadline (April 13). The government’s proposed system for tradeable import credits could reshape which OEMs invest in Canada and what models get built here. The submissions will signal which way policy is heading regardless of the election outcome.
3. Federal election timing and platform differences. The Liberals’ $3 billion auto strategy fund and Chinese EV quota versus the Conservatives’ GST removal on Canadian-made vehicles, “dollar-for-dollar” tariff rule, and alignment with U.S. tariff policy on China. These aren’t minor differences — they produce fundamentally different used vehicle supply and pricing dynamics for the next 3–5 years.
4. Insurance surcharge escalation. Jevco is raising its high-theft-risk premium from $500 to $1,500 effective March 24 for new business. Intact already applies a $500 surcharge on high-theft models. Popular inventory like the CR-V, Civic, RAV4, and Highlander all carry elevated theft risk. Dealers holding these units should factor insurance cost pressure into their cost-to-market calculations.
5. Used EV lease return wave. The 2022–2023 leasing boom is now producing returns. Roughly 35 new EV models are launching in Canada in 2026, creating competition from above. Used EV prices are now below used hybrid prices nationally. For dealers holding electric inventory, every week of delay on pricing is margin lost.
Sources
Canadian Black Book — Weekly Market Insights (weeks ending Feb 21 through March 28, 2026)
Canadian Auto Dealer — “Used wholesale prices continue downward drift” (March 2026)
Canadian Auto Dealer — “Used wholesale prices continue gradual slide” (March 2026)
Auto Remarketing Canada — “CBB report shows Canadian wholesale market warming” (March 11, 2026)
OPENLANE Canada — Canadian Vehicle Price Index (January 2026 update)
Clutch — Used Car Pricing Report, February 2026
Clutch — Rearview Recap 2025
Clutch — EV Report: The Inflection Point (February 2026)
DesRosiers Automotive Consultants / UCDA — Used Vehicle Sourcing Survey (February 2026)
TD Economics — “The New Normal: 2026 Canadian Automotive Outlook”
Globe and Mail — “The effect on the Canadian automotive market after Trump’s first year in office” (March 2026)
CBC News — “Poilievre unveils auto plan” (March 13, 2026)
CBC News — “Canada’s auto market is officially open to Chinese EVs” (March 7, 2026)
EV News — “Doug Ford Presses Quebec and BC to Drop EV Mandates” (March 2026)
KPMG Canada — “Disruption as Usual: Canada’s Automotive Outlook” (February 2026)
MoneySense — “The state of the Canadian used car market” (March 2026)
Insurance Bureau of Canada — Auto Theft Claims Update (February 2026)
Excalibur Insurance — Jevco High-Theft Risk Premium Update (March 2026)
TradeBasis — Canadian Market Intelligence for Independent Dealers (tradebasis.ca)
This report is produced by TradeBasis — Canadian market intelligence built for independent dealers. Real-time wholesale data, trim-level accuracy, cost-to-market calculations. No enterprise pricing, no guesswork.