Market Report | Published October 13, 2026 | Updated monthly
Category: Market Reports | Author: TradeBasis Team | Data through October 3, 2026
The Canadian used vehicle market is doing something it doesn’t usually do in the fall: holding up. Wholesale values are softening on schedule, as they do every autumn, but at roughly half the pace of a normal year. Over the five weeks ending October 3, 2026, Canadian wholesale values fell about 0.68% in total. In a typical 2017–2019 season, the same five weeks would have taken about 1.21% off the market.
The contrast with the United States is starker. Over those same five weeks, US wholesale values fell about 3.3% — roughly five times Canada’s decline. The two markets that share a border, many of the same nameplates, and most of the same appraisal tools are now moving at very different speeds. For a Canadian dealer, that gap is more than a headline: any value built on US data or US depreciation curves is currently overstating how fast Canadian vehicles are losing value, and that leads to under-offering on trades and losing acquisitions to competitors who price the Canadian market as it actually is.
This is the October 2026 Canadian used vehicle market report. It covers five weeks of Canadian wholesale data, the segment winners and losers, retail listings and auction activity, new-vehicle sales and the tariff-driven shift away from US-built vehicles, the macro backdrop, and the outlook for November and the winter.
Quick Answer: The Canadian Used Vehicle Market in October 2026
- Slower-than-normal fall softening: Canadian wholesale −0.68% over five weeks to October 3, versus a 2017–19 norm of about −1.21%. Every week came in milder than its historical average.
- Decoupling from the US: US wholesale fell about −3.3% over the same five weeks — roughly five times Canada’s decline.
- Retail listings: average listing price about $38,250 on roughly 165,000 dealer listings, down from about 200,000 listings in May.
- Standout segment: subcompact crossover/SUVs gained value five weeks in a row.
- Weakest segments: compact vans (−1.44%, −1.20% in back-to-back weeks), full-size crossover/SUVs, subcompact and mid-size cars.
- New sales up: 168,000 units in September (+3.4% YoY), a fourth straight monthly gain; US-built share of Canadian new sales down to 28.4% from 35.4%.
- Macro: Bank of Canada at 2.25% (next decision October 28); CPI 3.0%; unemployment 6.5% after 68,000 jobs lost in September; Canada-US talks suspended since August.
- Dealer takeaway: price on Canadian data — US-derived depreciation is running about five times too hot.
The Headline: The Canadian Used Vehicle Market Is Holding Up Better Than Its Own History
Every fall, used vehicle values in Canada soften. Summer demand fades, model-year changeover adds pressure, and the market drifts toward its seasonal low point in November. Canadian Black Book publishes a useful benchmark for exactly this: the average change for the same week during 2017–2019, the last stretch of “normal” seasonal behaviour before the pandemic distortion. Measured against it, fall 2026 is unusually firm.
| Week Ending | Canada Overall | Canada Cars | Canada Trucks/SUVs | Canada 2017–19 Norm | US Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 5 | −0.05% | +0.01% | −0.09% | −0.24% | −0.53% |
| Sept 12 | −0.19% | −0.21% | −0.17% | −0.26% | −0.72% |
| Sept 19 | −0.18% | −0.03% | −0.30% | −0.25% | −0.69% |
| Sept 26 | −0.14% | −0.07% | −0.20% | −0.25% | −0.71% |
| Oct 3 | −0.12% | −0.11% | −0.12% | −0.22% | −0.73% |
| 5-week total | ≈ −0.68% | — | — | ≈ −1.21% | ≈ −3.33% |
Weekly change in wholesale values. Canada: Canadian Black Book Market Insights (Canadian market). US: Black Book Market Insights (US market). Dashed marker: Canada’s 2017–2019 average for the same week. Full figures in the table above.
Three readings matter. First, Canada’s decline came in below its historical norm in all five weeks — not one outlier week, but a consistent pattern. Second, the pace was steady and gentle, between −0.05% and −0.19% a week, with no sign of an accelerating slide. Third, the US market moved in the opposite direction relative to its own history: US weekly declines of −0.53% to −0.73% ran at roughly two to four-and-a-half times its 2017–2019 norms. Black Book described US depreciation as running at a “seasonally elevated pace.”
In dollar terms, the five-week cumulative change works out to roughly $200 of depreciation on a $30,000 Canadian wholesale unit, versus about $1,000 on the same unit in the US. That gap is the single most important number in this report for anyone who appraises vehicles in Canada.
Why Canada and the US Are Diverging
The data doesn’t single out one cause, but several Canadian-specific factors are pushing in the same direction, and the likely explanation is a combination of them:
- Tighter retail supply. Canadian dealer listings tracked by Canadian Black Book fell from roughly 200,000 in May to about 160,000–170,000 through September and early October. Fewer units competing for buyers supports values.
- A tariff-driven shift away from US-built vehicles. US-built vehicles accounted for 28.4% of Canadian new-vehicle sales in the first half of 2026, down from 35.4% a year earlier, as tariffs and counter-tariffs reshaped what Canadians buy new. New-vehicle price pressure from tariffs continues to push some buyers toward used.
- A weaker Canadian dollar. The loonie slipped from about US$0.721 in early September to about US$0.704 by October 3. A softer dollar makes Canadian used vehicles cheaper for cross-border buyers and raises the cost of US-sourced inventory, both of which tend to support domestic wholesale values.
- Steady new-vehicle demand. Canadian new sales have grown four months running, suggesting the consumer has not pulled back sharply despite tariffs and elevated fuel costs.
The practical conclusion doesn’t depend on which factor matters most: the Canadian used vehicle market is behaving like a Canadian market, not a northern extension of the US one. Depreciation assumptions, book values, or appraisal tools built on US transaction data will currently tell a Canadian dealer that vehicles are losing value faster than they actually are. On a trade, that becomes a lower offer than the market supports — and a customer who takes their vehicle down the street. We covered why US-derived data misprices Canadian vehicles in our TradeBasis vs Carbly comparison and TradeBasis vs vAuto comparison.
US depreciation is running about five times Canada’s. Is your appraisal tool?
TradeBasis prices every vehicle against real Canadian dealer asking prices, filtered by province and decoded to the exact trim — not US data converted to Canadian dollars. When the two markets diverge like this, that difference shows up on every trade. Plans from $99/month CAD, no setup fee, no annual contract.
Segment Winners and Losers: September 5 to October 3
The overall number hides the usual fall rotation. Canadian Black Book’s segment data shows demand concentrating on affordable, winter-capable vehicles and moving away from vans and large, expensive crossovers.
| Segment | Weekly Moves Reported | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Subcompact crossover/SUV | +1.01%, +0.68%, +0.38%, +0.13%, +0.09% | Five straight gains; the fall’s clear winner |
| Subcompact luxury crossover/SUV | +0.55% (Sept 5), +1.49% (Sept 12), +0.76% (Sept 19) | Strong early-fall demand |
| Small pickup | +0.26% (Sept 26, led all segments); gained again Oct 3 | Firm |
| Compact car | +0.47% (Sept 5), +0.14% (Sept 26), +0.06% (Oct 3) | Affordable cars holding better than mid-size |
| Minivan | −0.61% (Sept 12), −1.06% (Sept 26), +0.34% (Oct 3) | Volatile; bounced in the latest week |
| Full-size crossover/SUV | −1.21% (Sept 19) | Expensive capability softening |
| Compact van | −0.89% (Sept 19), −1.44% (Sept 26), −1.20% (Oct 3) | Weakest segment in the market |
| Subcompact and mid-size cars | Subcompact −0.57%, −0.34%, −0.45%; mid-size −0.48%, −0.36% | Persistent softness |
The pattern matches what we laid out in used car prices in winter in Canada: the average softens, but demand rotates toward affordable, practical, winter-capable vehicles. Subcompact crossovers — the cheapest way into an AWD-capable vehicle for many buyers — are the clearest beneficiary. Dealers who cut prices across the board because “the market is softening” are giving away margin on exactly the units buyers are competing for.
One caution on the segment numbers: a crossover’s value depends heavily on whether the specific unit is AWD or FWD, and segment averages blend both. The segment trend tells you where demand is moving; it doesn’t tell you what a particular VIN is worth. We cover that trim and drivetrain spread in why the average used vehicle price is lying to you.
Retail Listings and Auction Activity
On the retail side, Canadian Black Book’s 14-day moving average listing price for used vehicles on Canadian dealer lots was:
- Early September: about $38,500 on roughly 160,000 listings
- Late September: about $38,250 on roughly 170,000 listings
- Week ending October 3: about $38,250 on roughly 165,000 listings
For context, in May 2026 the average listing price was about $37,700 on roughly 200,000 listings, and in mid-July about $36,900 on about 169,000. Listing counts are now running roughly 15–20% below spring levels. Average listing prices are sensitive to the mix of vehicles listed — more trucks and SUVs pull the average up, more sedans pull it down — so the small rise since spring should not be read as broad price appreciation. The firmer signal is the combination of fewer listings and slower-than-normal wholesale declines.
Auction activity improved through September. Canadian Black Book reported auction sale rates averaging about 36% in the week ending September 5 (with lanes ranging from 17.7% to 72.7%), rising to about 59.8% by the week ending September 19. By late September, CBB noted auction inventory had returned to “regular-high levels.” Better sell-through with steady inventory is consistent with a market where buyers are active but selective.
For a dealer, the retail-wholesale picture points to a familiar opportunity and risk. Retail asking prices are holding while wholesale values drift lower, so well-bought units carry healthy spreads — but only if they turn. With all-in holding costs commonly estimated at $30–$45 per vehicle per day, a unit that sits through November gives that spread back. See our breakdown of used car holding costs in Canada.
New Vehicle Sales: A Fourth Straight Monthly Gain
DesRosiers Automotive Consultants estimates Canadian new light-vehicle sales reached about 168,000 units in September 2026, up 3.4% from about 163,000 a year earlier — the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year growth. September had one more selling day than last year; the seasonally adjusted annual rate was 1.91 million units, within its recent range. August sales were also about 168,000, up 5.4%.
Year-to-date, sales remain 0.7% below 2025. DesRosiers managing partner Andrew King described “remarkable stability in recent months” and “a surprisingly stable year with a very welcome positive performance in Q3 and in September.”
Segment detail from DesRosiers’ year-to-date data through September:
- Light trucks made up 87.2% of new light-vehicle sales; passenger cars 12.8%.
- Compact SUVs, the largest segment, were −0.6% year-to-date but up about 7% in Q3.
- Intermediate SUVs were +3.2% year-to-date.
- Large pickups were −4.1% year-to-date and −0.7% in Q3.
- Zero-emission vehicles had a strong Q3, helped by China-built Tesla Model 3 shipments and Chevrolet Bolt momentum.
Why it matters for used: steady new sales feed a steady stream of trade-ins into the used market over the coming months, which is supportive of supply. And the shrinking share of US-built vehicles in Canadian new sales — 28.4% in the first half of 2026 versus 35.4% a year earlier — is gradually reshaping the mix of late-model used vehicles that will come back as trades in 2027 and 2028.
Trade Policy: Talks Suspended, Tariffs in Place
Canada-US trade talks broke down in August 2026. The US imposed 50% tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods effective August 22, and Canada’s matching counter-tariffs of 15%, 25%, and 50% on $27.6 billion of US-origin goods took effect September 8. Canada’s 25% tariff on non-CUSMA-compliant US-built vehicles, and the sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, remain in place. In early September, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would resume talks “when the Americans are ready.”
The used vehicle market has so far absorbed this without disruption — if anything, the tariff environment is one of the reasons Canadian values are firmer than US values. Tariffs keep new-vehicle prices elevated and shift new-vehicle buying away from US-built products, both of which support demand for used vehicles already in the country. We covered these mechanics in our Policy Watch analysis of how US tariffs are reshaping the Canadian used vehicle market.
Two other supply-side developments are worth watching. Chery has said it plans to bring its Jaecoo and Omoda brands to Canada before the end of 2026, and the Port of Vancouver’s Annacis Auto Terminal handled a record 264,284 vehicles in the first half of 2026, up 10% year over year — a sign of how much more Canadian new-vehicle supply is arriving by sea rather than across the US border.
The Macro Backdrop
- Interest rates: The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, its seventh straight hold, citing elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict and the new US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures. Next decisions: October 28 and December 9.
- Inflation: CPI was 3.0% year over year in August, unchanged from July.
- Labour: employment fell by 68,000 in September and unemployment rose to 6.5% from 6.4%. The losses were uneven: Alberta added 23,000 jobs (unemployment down to 6.4%), while Quebec lost 49,000, BC 20,000, and Ontario 20,000.
- Growth and spending: Statistics Canada reported flat GDP growth in July and a 0.7% decline in July retail sales.
- Fuel: the federal fuel excise tax suspension was extended to April 1, 2027, lowering gasoline by about 10 cents a litre and diesel by about 4 cents.
- Currency and yields: the Canadian dollar was about US$0.704 and the 10-year Government of Canada yield about 3.86% in the week ending October 3.
The consumer picture is mixed but not breaking: inflation at 3.0%, flat growth, and September’s job losses squeeze affordability, while steady rates, the fuel tax relief, and four months of rising new-vehicle sales point to buyers who are cautious rather than absent. Regionally, Alberta’s job gains stand out against losses in Quebec, BC, and Ontario — another reason national averages are a poor guide to any one dealer’s market. That is consistent with a used market that softens gently rather than sharply.
November and Winter Outlook for the Canadian Used Vehicle Market
Wholesale values: expect continued seasonal softening into November, which is typically the low point of the year. The base case is that Canada keeps running at or below its historical seasonal pace, given tight listings and the tariff backdrop. A sustained move toward US-style declines would be the signal to watch — it would suggest demand, not just seasonality, is weakening.
Segment rotation: affordable AWD crossovers, subcompact SUVs, and small pickups should stay firm through November; vans, large luxury crossovers, sedans, and summer vehicles remain the weak spots. Quebec’s winter tire mandate takes effect December 1, and BC’s designated-highway requirement has been in force since October 1.
Rates: the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision is the next macro event. A cut would modestly help financing affordability heading into the spring market; a hold keeps conditions as they are.
EVs: DesRosiers is watching whether buyers pull zero-emission vehicle purchases forward ahead of incentive changes at year-end. A pull-forward would lift new EV sales in Q4 and could add late-model EV trade-ins in 2027.
New entrants and trade: Chery’s planned Canadian launch and any resumption of Canada-US talks are the two wildcards that could change new-vehicle pricing — and, indirectly, used demand — over the winter.
Five Dealer Action Items for October and November
1. Stop using US depreciation as a guide. US wholesale fell about five times as fast as Canada’s over the past five weeks. If your values, book adjustments, or appraisal tool lean on US data, they’re telling you vehicles are worth less than the Canadian market says — and your trade offers are coming in low. Price against Canadian comparables in your province.
2. Don’t cut across the board. The average is softening; subcompact crossovers aren’t. Reprice by segment and by drivetrain, weekly, and protect margin on the units with rising demand.
3. Move vans and large crossovers now. Compact vans posted three straight weekly declines of 0.89% to 1.44%. These units get more expensive to hold every week into November.
4. Buy affordable AWD aggressively this month. Demand for winter-capable vehicles peaks September through November. Units acquired in October have the full peak to sell into. Our guide to sourcing cars from private listings covers how to find them before your competitors do.
5. Plan December–January acquisitions for spring. The seasonal trough is also the buying window for sedans, trucks, and summer vehicles that sell into the spring peak. Set targets now so the buying is deliberate. The full process is in our 8-step Canadian appraisal workflow.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the Canadian used vehicle market performing in October 2026?
The Canadian used vehicle market is softening on its normal fall schedule, but more slowly than usual. Canadian Black Book reported Canadian wholesale declines of 0.05%, 0.19%, 0.18%, 0.14%, and 0.12% in the five weeks ending September 5 through October 3, 2026, a cumulative drop of about 0.68%. Every one of those weeks was milder than the 2017-2019 average for the same week, which together would have been about 1.21%. The average used vehicle listing price on Canadian dealer lots held near $38,250 on roughly 165,000 listings.
Are used car prices in Canada falling faster or slower than in the US?
Much slower. Over the same five weeks ending October 3, 2026, Black Book reported US wholesale declines of 0.53% to 0.73% per week, a cumulative drop of about 3.3%, against about 0.68% in Canada. On a $30,000 wholesale unit, that is roughly $1,000 of US depreciation versus about $200 in Canada. The gap means US-derived values or US-rooted appraisal tools can overstate Canadian depreciation right now, which leads to under-offering on trades.
What is the average used vehicle price in Canada in October 2026?
Canadian Black Book’s 14-day moving average listing price for used vehicles on Canadian dealer lots was about $38,250 in late September and early October 2026, based on roughly 165,000 to 170,000 listings. That compares with about $38,500 in early September and about $37,700 in May 2026, when roughly 200,000 vehicles were listed. Average listing prices are influenced by the mix of vehicles listed, so they should be read alongside segment-level data.
Which used vehicle segments are strongest in Canada right now?
Subcompact crossover/SUVs were the standout in the Canadian used vehicle market, gaining wholesale value in all five weeks from September 5 to October 3, 2026 (+1.01%, +0.68%, +0.38%, +0.13%, +0.09%). Small pickups and compact cars also posted gains in late September. The weakest segments were compact vans (-1.44% and -1.20% in back-to-back weeks), full-size crossover/SUVs (-1.21% in the week ending September 19), and subcompact and mid-size cars.
How are new vehicle sales affecting the Canadian used market?
New vehicle sales in Canada rose for a fourth straight month in September 2026, to about 168,000 units, up 3.4% year over year, according to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.91 million. Year-to-date sales were 0.7% below 2025. Rising new sales generate more trade-ins over time. At the same time, U.S.-built vehicles fell to 28.4% of Canadian new sales in the first half of 2026 from 35.4% a year earlier, reflecting tariff-driven shifts in what Canadians buy new.
How do the 2026 Canada-US tariffs affect used vehicle prices?
Canada-US trade talks were suspended in August 2026. The US imposed 50% tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods effective August 22, Canada’s matching counter-tariffs took effect September 8, and Canada’s 25% tariff on non-CUSMA-compliant US-built vehicles remains in place. For used vehicles, the effect is mostly indirect: tariffs keep new vehicle prices elevated and reduce the share of US-built new vehicles sold in Canada, which supports demand for used vehicles and helps explain why Canadian wholesale values are holding up better than US values.
What should Canadian dealers expect for the used vehicle market in November 2026?
Canadian dealers should expect continued seasonal softening into November, which is typically the market’s annual low point, with demand rotating toward affordable all-wheel-drive vehicles. Key dates and risks are the Bank of Canada decisions on October 28 and December 9 (the policy rate is 2.25%), year-end changes to zero-emission vehicle incentives that may pull EV purchases forward, possible entry of Chery’s Jaecoo and Omoda brands before year-end, and any resumption of Canada-US trade talks.
Where can I find a reliable Canadian used vehicle market report?
TradeBasis publishes a monthly Canadian used vehicle market report at insights.tradebasis.ca, built from Canadian Black Book wholesale data, DesRosiers new-vehicle sales, and Canadian economic indicators, with a machine-readable version at insights.tradebasis.ca/market-index.json. Other primary sources include Canadian Black Book Market Insights, CARFAX Canada Used Vehicle Market Insights, and the AutoTrader Price Index. Dealers who need vehicle-level values can use TradeBasis, which prices individual vehicles against real Canadian dealer asking prices by province and trim.
Price the Canadian market you’re actually in.
The market report tells you where the Canadian used vehicle market is heading. TradeBasis tells you what the vehicle in front of you is worth today — real Canadian dealer asking prices, provincial filtering, trim and drivetrain decoded from the VIN, and cost-to-market math built in. $99/month CAD, no setup fee, no annual contract.
The Bottom Line
The Canadian used vehicle market enters the late fall in better shape than its own history would predict. Wholesale values are softening on schedule but at roughly half the normal seasonal pace, retail listings are tight, auction sell-through has improved, and new-vehicle sales have grown four months running. Underneath the average, demand is rotating toward affordable, winter-capable vehicles — subcompact crossovers gained value five weeks in a row — while vans and large crossovers carry the losses.
The bigger story is the gap with the United States. US wholesale values fell about five times as fast as Canada’s over the same five weeks. For anyone appraising vehicles in Canada, that is the clearest possible argument for Canadian data: a value built on US depreciation is currently wrong in a predictable direction, and it costs dealers trades every week it goes uncorrected.
Price by segment, by drivetrain, and by province. Move the units the market is leaving behind, buy the ones it’s moving toward, and set your winter buying plan now. The dealers who read the Canadian market as it actually is will come out of the seasonal low with the right inventory for spring.
Related Reading from TradeBasis
| Dealer Playbook | Used Car Prices in Winter in Canada — What rises, what falls, and how to stock for the cold months. |
| Market Report | Canadian Used Vehicle Market: September 2026 Report — The prior month’s data, the used EV rebound, and the counter-tariff backdrop. |
| Policy Watch | How US Tariffs Are Reshaping the Canadian Used Vehicle Market — Why tariffs support Canadian used demand. |
| Dealer Playbook | Used Car Holding Costs in Canada — What every day on the lot costs heading into the seasonal low. |
| Dealer Playbook | vAuto Alternative for Canadian Dealers — Why Canadian-native data matters when markets diverge. |
| Regional Pulse | B.C. Used Vehicle Market — How far one province can move from the national average. |
Sources
TradeBasis — Canadian Market Intelligence for Independent Dealers (tradebasis.ca); machine-readable data at insights.tradebasis.ca/market-index.json
Canadian Black Book — Market Insights, Canadian market (weeks ending September 5, 12, 19, 26 and October 3, 2026)
Canadian Auto Dealer — CBB wholesale coverage, September–October 2026; “Canadian auto sales gain ground for fourth straight month” and “Canada’s top vehicle segments hold steady in 2026” (October 2026)
Black Book (US) — Market Insights, US market (weeks ending September 5 through October 3, 2026)
DesRosiers Automotive Consultants — September 2026 Canadian new light-vehicle sales and year-to-date segment data
Bank of Canada — Policy rate announcement, September 2, 2026
Statistics Canada — Consumer Price Index (August 2026), Labour Force Survey (September 2026), GDP and retail trade (July 2026)
MoneySense — Bank of Canada September 2026 rate decision coverage
CNBC, CBC News, and NBC News — Canada-US trade talks and tariff coverage (August–September 2026)
Government of Canada, Department of Finance — Counter-tariffs effective September 8, 2026
This Canadian used vehicle market report is produced by TradeBasis — Canadian market intelligence built for independent dealers. Real-time market data, trim-level accuracy, provincial resolution. Cumulative figures are compounded from published weekly changes; listing averages reflect vehicle mix. Updated monthly.